For 30-40 minutes tonight, the Dallas Stars looked like the better team. They for sure were right out of the gate, absolutely lighting up Stuart Skinner and the Edmonton Oilers with shot attempts, shots on goal, offensive zone time, you name it.
Well, unless you’re naming goals, because therein lies the problem: the Stars, once again, were unable to score against the Oilers, in what has been a very, very annoying broken record for the past two postseasons. Rather than entering the first intermission up by a bajillion goals, they were instead down by one, having given up a goal to Leon Draisaitl as soon as the Oilers went on the power play.
But the Stars kept the pressure on, and after getting their third power play of the night, they were able to equalize it after Jason Robertson made a beautiful shot that Skinner didn’t have a chance on — eight ball, corner pocket.
That could have been the turning point. Instead, Dallas took another penalty less than two minutes later, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins used Corey Perry’s stick as a backboard to immediately reclaim the lead in what was the eventual game-winning goal.
It was an extremely deflating goal — all that work to finally get just a single puck past Skinner, only for it to be immediately squandered. What’s worse is that some time after that, you could see the Stars start to slow down. Edmonton took the edge in the shot count for the period, and when the third came around, the Stars might have well been turtling despite trailing, as they were ultimately outshot 13 to three(!!).
They ran out of gas, plain and simple. Dallas looked like a team desperate to finally score first, and it was all for naught. They have just two goals in their last three games, and just three over 11 periods of play if you take out the third of Game 1. They head home to Dallas down 3-1 in a series that looks like it’s already over, because honestly: if the Stars were capable of flipping the switch, shouldn’t they have done so by now?
At least, that’s the pessimistic take. The optimistic take was that after splitting Games 1 and 2, all the Stars had to do was steal one road game and be perfect at home. It didn’t necessarily matter which road game that is, as much as we would have preferred one of the past two, but the Stars are very much still in this series in a strictly technical term. Three wins in a row, of course, is a tall order, but considering Edmonton looks ready to make it four, it’s certainly possible. Again, technically.
But I’m not sure you could find a single person on the planet that thinks this Stars squad will be able to pull it off, at least not right now. I mean, if they actually did end up winning the series, you’ll hear plenty of quotes about how “the guys in the locker room never gave up” and how they “knew they could come back to win it.” But does anyone honestly believe the coaches and players when they say that stuff?
So yeah, full doomerism over here in Afterwords. But after the past three games, what else have the Stars given me to work with?
• I caught some heat in the comments section yesterday for saying I thought Jake Oettinger played decent, if not well. Which is kind of ironic because I think most people might say that he played really well tonight whereas I kind of thought he was average if not subpar.
He made some nice saves off of plenty of shots, but I didn’t feel like Oettinger was tested too terribly hard by the Oilers tonight. I can’t really blame him for that second goal, but I feel like he probably wanted the first goal by Draisaitl back. Yes, Draisaitl was the top goal scorer in the league this year. Yes, it was on the power play. And yes, Edmonton was making him move back and forth with the quick passes. But with the puck sailing right over his pads and under his glove, I can’t help but think that was when you needed a big robbery save by your star goaltender.
Now, does that mean Oettinger is the reason the Stars lost? Of course not — blaming him for any of the Stars’ struggles this round wouldn’t be remotely fair given how non-existent the offense has been. But maybe you just have to accept that the Stars will barely be able to score on Skinner (who also hasn’t looked as “lights out” as his numbers would seem to dictate, in my most definitely biased opinion), which means you have to hope and pray that Oettinger just stands on his head for you and stops that everything that comes his way. I mean, it certainly feels like three straight shutouts is the only way Dallas can win this series right now.
• When (technically if) the Stars lose this series, we can go in-depth about some of the bigger picture stuff: the coaching, front office decisions, a seemingly entire roster full of star players whose faces belong on a milk carton, the whole shebang. But it’s hard for fans to not wonder right now if the Stars’ have hit a sort of ceiling with what looks to be a third consecutive exit in the third round.
Now, don’t get me wrong: there are 29 teams that would kill to have that sort of success over the same time frame, the only exceptions being the two recent Stanley Cup winners and the team about to eliminate Dallas for the second straight year. There’s doomerism, and then there’s calling for the heads of everyone and their mother and wanting to blow everything up because the grass is always greener on the other side.
I don’t think we’re there yet, as frustrating as failing to achieve the ultimate goal of a Stanley Cup is — this team still has a young core, with older players and contracts phasing out and a rising cap to consistently ice a very talented roster. I’m a big believer in the idea that Cup winners in the Cap era are overwhelmingly top-end teams who just never managed to breakthrough in the playoffs before (repeat winners excluded), and Dallas most certainly fits that bill.
Of course, that’s not to say you just “run it back” and assume everything will be different next time (ask Toronto how that’s worked out for them). But again, a topic for another time.
• Until then, feel free to blame me for the Stars’ struggles this series, or more accurately the Oilers’ success. Here’s a blurb I wrote after Game 1:
(Side note: I thought Nugent-Hopkins had a very good game. But it also made me think: is he the most milquetoast No. 1 overall draft pick of all time? Outside of hitting the century mark the same season McDavid managed 153 points, he’s been consistently good, but not great, and nowhere near a bust. He’s just a guy out there playing well and producing, and that’s about it.)
Now I want to emphasize that first part about Nugent-Hopkins having played a very good game. Still, I think he must have read it and taken it personally, because he’s arguably been the best player on the ice this entire series: nine points in four games (all of which were multi-point games), including both primary assists for the two non-empty net Oilers goals (and again, No. 2 might as well have been his given he just used Perry’s stick as a backboard).
So don’t blame the Stars, or the refs (who were pretty rough tonight, even if it was to the Stars’ favor), or even the Oilers themselves for this 3-1 deficit. Blame me, because if the aforementioned Maple Leafs have taught me anything, it’s that you can always blame the fans and/or media for a lack of success.
